Christmas is always a time for the media to either look back or look ahead. the chaps at CCS Insight have got in early with this vision of 2009 - some interesting ideas, and some safe and not so safe predictions. For example, if Nokia really can expand its market share above 40% then there are a couple of other handset companies who are going to be in a lot of trouble next year.

Anyway, to sign up for this kind of wisdom direct, go to www.ccsinsight.com.

1. Global sales of mobile phones will shrink in 2009.
Global economic conditions will hit all players, from handset manufacturers and network operators to component suppliers, developers, distributors and retailers. Consolidation is highly likely, most noticeably in handset manufacturing, chipset supply, distribution and retailing. We predict Nokia's unrivalled advantages in distribution, economies of scale and supply chain efficiency will take its global market share beyond 40 percent in 2009. By 2010, Samsung will have increased its market share above 20 percent.

2. Sales of phones in emerging markets will buck the recession in 2009.
India, sub-Saharan Africa and China still have low penetration rates. In the long term, growing sales of replacement phones will provide opportunities for phone makers without the scale to compete with Nokia and Chinese manufacturers in entry-level segments. These segments will see greater competition and falling prices in 2009 as Nokia's keen pricing of ultra-low-end devices such as the 1202 puts more pressure on the likes of Huawei and ZTE.

3. Most European networks will make mobile broadband their top priority in 2009.
The smaller networks will use mobile broadband to attract users to their voice and text tariffs. We expect to see further development of prepaid mobile broadband. The demand for mobile broadband will prompt many operators to extend their range of laptops and netbooks.

4. Every operator in Western Europe will offer an "unlimited" tariff by the end of 2009.
More and more people will expect their phone tariff to include "unlimited everything" —voice, data and text. So-called unlimited plans will be complemented by other tariffs with large bundles of voice minutes, text messages and data allowances, enough to give people the impression they have unlimited access.

5. Mobile advertising will fail to live up to the hype.
By the end of 2009, annual mobile advertising revenue in Western Europe will amount to €236 million, with mobile search and off-portal advertising representing the largest proportion of this sum. Advertising agencies are still learning about the opportunities to engage with consumers on this powerful medium. For advertisers, the mobile medium provides a much more effective and targeted way to reach people than traditional media, such as TV and print.

6. At least 20 Android phones will be announced in 2009 and five global network operators will declare support for the platform.
The Open Handset Alliance and its Android platform will gather significant momentum, mounting a major challenge to other licensable mobile software platforms.

7. Mobile TV still won't take off in 2009.
Although more than 3 million people in Western Europe will own a mobile phone that can receive a broadcast signal, usage will be limited, especially beyond major sporting events, news stories and reality shows. Adoption will be driven by people's desire to own the latest fashionable phone and by attractive flat-rate bundles, rather than a focus on mobile TV content.

8. The megapixel arms race will see 10- and 12-megapixel cameras appear in 2009.
Consumers will still equate more megapixels with better image quality. We expect camera phones with up to 12-megapixel sensors to appear in 2009; flagship phones will feature 15-megapixel devices by 2010.

9. In 2009, phone manufacturers will engage in "gigabyte wars".
Gigabytes will join megapixels as a measure that consumers will use to assess the performance of a mobile phone. The low cost of memory will make it possible to have tens of gigabytes of memory on high-end phones. This memory will be used to store the huge selection of content (user created, side-loaded and downloaded over the air) that will become available.

10. Four manufacturers will launch "green" phones in 2009.
Environmental initiatives will be a key theme at Mobile World Congress 2009 as phone makers flaunt their green credentials. However, consumers will remain largely unimpressed unless saving the planet means a lower price tag.